Key Events This Week: CPI, US-China Trade Talks, Treasury Auctions

The highlight this week will be US CPI on Wednesday and a resumption of trade talks between the US and China today in London. Bessent, Lutnick and Greer are set to meet Chinese representatives at the meeting today. So it’s all the big guns from the US administration. DB’s Jim Reid reminds us that the monthly 30-yr UST auction on Thursday will also be a heavy focus with all the attention on the long-end in recent weeks. There’s a 10yr auction the day before as well. So a good test of demand as the fiscal bill meanders its way through Congress.

Before we preview the CPI release the other main highlights this week are the NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations today; US NFIB small business optimism, UK employment data and Danish and Norwegian CPI tomorrow; that CPI, the 10yr UST auction and the UK Spending Review on Wednesday; US PPI, US jobless claims, UK monthly GDP, the 30yr UST auction and my birthday on Thursday; and the UoM consumer sentiment (including inflation expectations) on Friday. A fuller day-by-day diary of events is at the end as usual.

With regards to US CPI, DB’s US economists expect weak seasonally adjusted gas prices to again keep the headline rate (+0.20% forecast vs. +0.22% previous) gain below that of core (+0.31% vs. +0.24%). This should help the YoY rate for both headline and core to rise two-tenths to 2.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Shorter-term trends for core would be mixed with the three-month annualized rate rising by three-tenths to 2.4% while the six-month rate would remain steady at 3.0%. DB’s economists do expect tariffs to begin to impact core goods prices, especially in categories like household furnishings and supplies where we saw potential preliminary tariff impacts in the April data. On the services side, economists will be most attuned to the volatile categories like lodging away and airline fares that have been a meaningful drag of late. For PPI the following day, our economists expect a +0.27% increase in May which would reduce the YoY rate by a couple of tenths. As ever, how the subcomponents that feed into core PCE come out will be the most interesting part of the release. Note that the Fed are now on media blackout ahead of next Wednesday’s (18th) FOMC.

It’s not clear that the Fed will have learnt too much more than they already knew from Friday’s payrolls data. May headline (+139k vs. 147k) and private (140k vs. 146k) payrolls were slightly above the 126k consensus but -95k of net revisions to the two previous months softened the beat. We now have very stable private sector hiring trends over the past three (133k), six (146k) and twelve (122k) months. However the narrow breadth in job growth as health care / social assistance (+78k) and leisure / hospitality (+48k) continued to drive the majority of private sector job gains in May and have accounted for 75% of private job growth over the past twelve months.

Staying on employment there will be increased attention on claims this week given the recent tick up. It’s not clear whether its seasonals or evidence that there is some real time slipping in employment trends.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 9

• Data: US May NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, April wholesale trade sales, China May CPI, PPI, trade balance, Japan May Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, April BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance
• Central banks: ECB’s Elderson speaks

Tuesday June 10

• Data: US May NFIB small business optimism, UK April average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, May jobless claims change, Japan May M2, M3, machine tool orders, Italy April industrial production, Sweden April GDP indicator, Norway and Denmark May CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Villeroy, Holzmann and Rehn speak
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday June 11

• Data: US May CPI, federal budget balance, Japan May PPI, Canada April building permits
• Central banks: ECB’s Lane and Cipollone speak
• Earnings: Oracle, Inditex
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)
• Other: UK Spending Review

Thursday June 12

• Data: US May PPI, Q1 household change in net worth, initial jobless claims, UK May RICS house price balance, April monthly GDP, Germany April current account balance, Italy Q1 unemployment rate
• Central banks: ECB’s Muller, Escriva, Knot, Guindos and Schnabel speak
• Earnings: Adobe
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday June 13

• Data: US June University of Michigan survey, Japan April capacity utilisation, Tertiary industry index, Germany May wholesale price index, Italy April trade balance, Eurozone April trade balance, industrial production, Canada April manufacturing sales, Q1 capacity utilisation rate

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Finally, looking at the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the University of Michigan report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the June FOMC meeting.

Monday, June 9

• 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, May (last 3.6%)

Tuesday, June 10

• There are no major data releases scheduled.

Wednesday, June 11

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), May (GS +2.47%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.3%); Core CPI (YoY), May (GS +2.89%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.8%): We estimate a 0.25% increase in May core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would raise the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.9%. Our forecast reflects a decline in used car prices (-0.5%) reflecting a decline in auction prices, a slight increase in new car prices (+0.1%), and a more moderate increase in the car insurance category (+0.4%) based on premiums in our online dataset. We expect another soft month of travel services inflation based on higher frequency prices measures: we forecast unchanged hotel prices and unchanged airfares. We have penciled in moderate upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as apparel, recreation, and communication) worth +0.05pp on core inflation. We expect the shelter components to decelerate on net (OER +0.31% vs. +0.36% in April; primary rent +0.31% vs. +0.34%). We estimate a 0.17% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food prices (+0.4%) but sharply lower energy prices (-1.2%).

Thursday, June 12

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.5%); PPI ex-food and energy, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.4%) ;PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%);
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 7 (GS 260k, consensus 241k, last 247k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 31 (consensus 1,910k, last 1,904k): We estimate that initial claims rose a further 13k to 260k in the week ended June 7, reflecting a boost from residual seasonality related to the timing of the Memorial Day holiday.

Friday, June 13

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June preliminary (GS 53.6, consensus 53.5, last 52.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June preliminary (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%)

Source: DB, Goldman