Futures Drop As Trade Pessimism Returns

US equity futures are in the red but well off session lows, with tech leading and small caps lagging. As of 8:00am S&P futures are down -0.1% at 5,917 having earlier dropped as much as 0.5%; according to Goldman, US equities are „not reacting well” to i) „Plan B” article from the WSJ (which recaps what we said here) that “the administration is considering a stopgap effort to impose tariffs on swaths of the global economy under a never-before-used provision of the Trade Act of 1974, which includes language allowing for tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days to address trade imbalances with other countries”, and 2) a Reuters article quoting Bessent that US-China tariff talks are „a bit stalled.” Pre-market Mag 7 are mostly lower with TSLA -1.4%, NVDA -0.6% and META -0.4%. Bond yields are largely unchanged with the 10Y trading at 4.42%; the USD is modestly higher against G7 peers. Commodities are mixed with oil higher and metals lower. Today, macro focus will be on the April PCE and the final Michigan survey; tomorrow, OPEC+ will meet to decide on July output.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are flat to lower (Apple +0.1%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.07%, Amazon is flat, Meta -0.01%, Nvidia -0.2%, Tesla -0.8%). Gap sinks 15% after the company predicted a tariff impact of up to $300 million and revealed weakness at Banana Republic and Athleta. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Marvell Technology (MRVL) slips 3% after the chipmaker posted quarterly results and provided an outlook. While analysts are generally positive, they said more may have been expected given AI enthusiasm.
• NetApp (NTAP) falls 5% after the data storage provider forecast 1Q profit that missed the average analyst estimate. Bloomberg Intelligence writes that the “enterprise IT-spending environment for NetApp is proving more tepid than expected.”
• PagerDuty Inc. (PD) declines 6.2% after the software company cut its full-year revenue forecast and reported its first-quarter results. Analysts noted some execution issues in the quarter.
• Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK) inches 1% lower after Truist cut its recommendation to hold, anticipating weaker tourism in Hawaii.
• UiPath (PATH) rises 13% after the automation software company provided a 2Q revenue outlook that beat estimates.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) jumps 8% after the cosmetics retailer boosted its earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• Zscaler (ZS) gains 3% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.

Tariff headlines are once again shaping markets as unpredictability about the impact and scope of Trump’s trade agenda pushes investors to re-assess their appetite for risk. It follows a rebound in US stocks that had set the S&P 500 on track for its biggest monthly gain since 2023 before momentum began to fade on fiscal and growth concerns.

Late on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that trade talks with China were “a bit stalled.” Earlier, a federal appeals court offered Trump a temporary reprieve from a ruling that threatened to throw out the bulk of his agenda. Trump aides have insisted that the president will not be denied his tariff push and that the policies will remain, one way or another.

“The setup is quite pessimistic, whether you look at trade, fiscal outlooks, inflation, valuations, you name it,” said Dan Boardman-Weston, chief investment officer at BRI Wealth Management. “We’re keeping some cash on the sidelines as I expect volatility is here to stay for much longer.”

Later on Friday, traders’ focus will turn to the US core PCE, the Fed’s preferred infaltion gauge, for signals about the health of the economy and the outlook for interest-rate cuts. While the impact of Trump’s tariffs on April price data is expected to be modest, the trade-policy influence is likely to become more apparent as soon as next month. On Thursday, a report showed the US economy shrank at the start of the year due to weaker consumer spending and an even bigger impact from trade than initially reported.

Meanwhile, European stocks continued to benefit from weaker sentiment toward the US. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% and is on course for its best month since January as traders look past ongoing trade-related uncertainty. Financial services and utility shares are leading gains. Here are the most notable movers:

• M&G shares gain as much as 8.6% to reach the highest since June 2021, after Dai-ichi Life Holdings said it will acquire a 15% stake in the UK life insurer.
• Ovzon shares surge as much as 49% to their highest intraday level since February 2023, after the Swedish satellite communications services firm got a 1.04 billion Swedish Kroner (around €95.6 million) order from the country’s Defense Materiel Administration.
• Lindt rises as much as 1.7% as its price target was lifted to a street-high at Morgan Stanley, which says the Swiss chocolate maker’s premium valuation multiple can be supported at current levels.
• Beazley and Hiscox shares edge higher after Berenberg re-initiated coverage on the UK insurers with buy ratings and new Street-high price targets, describing the firms as a “compelling investment case.”
• Sanofi shares drop as much as 6.1%, after just one of two late-stage studies evaluating the experimental drug itepekimab in former smokers with inadequately controlled chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) met the primary endpoint.
• hVIVO shares plummet as much as 58%, slumping to a five-year low, after the company warned a significant contract has been canceled due to uncertainties in the pharmaceutical industry.
• Elekta shares fall as much as 5.3% after Morgan Stanley cut its price target on the Swedish medical equipment firm, noting that weak orders growth “cancelled out” better-than-expected earnings.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, though are still on track for its best month since November 2023, led by losses in Hong Kong after Donald Trump’s tariff agenda received a temporary reprieve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.7%, paring its gain for May to 4.7%. Alibaba and Tencent were among the biggest drags Friday, as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comment on “stalled” trade talks with China also weighed on the market. The measure is set for its first weekly loss since early April as the Trump administration’s back-and-forth moves fan uncertainty. Despite the weakness, the key Asian stock gauge was set to cap its first set of back-to-back monthly gains of the year on continued inflows from global funds as they trade on the “sell America” theme.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% but remained on track for its longest streak of monthly losses in five years. Traders’ concern that Trump’s trade policies could undermine the economy is adding to the greenback’s weakness and eroding its appeal as a traditional haven. The yen is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.1% against the greenback after prices in Tokyo jumped the most in two years.

“No matter what happens, markets realize that we are facing a long period of uncertainty,” said Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Allowing tariffs to remain in place raises risks of stagflation and is both dollar and equity negative.”

In rates, treasuries are steady, with futures trading within a narrow range over Asia, early London sessions while both bunds and gilts underperform. US yields cheaper by up to 1.5bp across long-end of the curve which underperforms so far, steepening 5s30s spread by around 1.5bp on the day with rest of the Treasury curve little change. US 10-year yields trade around 4.42% with bunds and gilts both lagging by 2.5bp in the sector. Session focus includes PCE price index, while month-end extension demand stands to support long-end of the curve.

In commodities, WTI futures drop on a Reuters headline that OPEC may discuss an output hike larger than 411kbpd during Saturday’s meeting. Spot gold falls $20 to around $3,298/oz. Bitcoin falls 0.8% toward $105,000.

US economic data includes April personal income/spending, PCE price index, wholesale inventories (8:30am), May MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am) and University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Daly (4:45pm) and Goolsbee (7:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +0.9%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.43%
• VIX little changed at 19.21
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1217.49
• euro -0.4% at $1.1328
• WTI crude +0.7% at $61.36/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trade talks between the US and China are “a bit stalled” and may need to be reinvigorated with a call between Trump and Xi Jinping, said Bessent. Reuters
• Trump team considers plan B for tariffs that would see it utilize Section 122 (tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days) and then a series of Section 301 investigations. WSJ
• Section 899 of Trump’s budget bill that the House passed last week would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries that it deems have punitive tax policies. Some worry this could upend markets and hit American industry. FT
• The United States plans to ramp up weapons sales to Taipei to a level exceeding President Donald Trump’s first term as part of an effort to deter China as it intensifies military pressure on the democratic island, according to two U.S. officials. RTRS
• DeepSeek releases data on its new model showing that it has surpassed ones from Alibaba, xAI, Meta, and Anthropic, and is on par with OpenAI and Google. SCMP
• Core PCE probably rose by a modest 0.1% in April as service components dragged. Consumer spending growth is expected to have slowed on the back of souring sentiment. BBG
• Prices in Tokyo jumped the most in two years in May on surging food costs. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.6%, more than expected. BBG
• Spain’s CPI for May cools by more than anticipated, coming in at +1.9% (down from +2.2% in Apr and below the Street’s +2% forecast)
• UK business confidence hit a nine-month high in May. The rebound from April’s drop suggests that firms may be in a stronger position for the next quarter. BBG
• Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said risks to employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced, while she added monetary policy is in a good place for now and it could take quite some time to see a shift in the balance of risks, as well as noted that if the balance shifts, the Fed is well prepared to respond.
• Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) said the labor market is in solid shape and will not get to 2% inflation this year, while she added they are really making progress on inflation. Daly said workers are worried about inflation and the Fed is resolute to get the job on inflation done.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were subdued heading into month-end as participants digested a slew of data and amid trade uncertainty. ASX 200 traded rangebound amid a lack of conviction after soft data releases including a contraction in Retail Sales. Nikkei 225 underperformed with the index back beneath the 38,000 level amid recent currency strength and after the latest Tokyo CPI data mostly topped forecasts, while trade remained in focus following Japanese PM Ishiba’s call with US President Trump and as top trade negotiator Akazawa plans to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent for trade talks later today. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood ahead of an extended weekend and with PMI data scheduled on Saturday, while US Treasury Secretary Bessent commented that China talks are a bit stalled but believes they will have more talks in a few weeks.

Top Asian News

• Japan has growing doubts that its next generation fighter project with the UK and Italy will meet a 2035 rollout target; may look at plugging air defence gaps with new F-35 stealth planes, according to Reuters sources.
• China April Phone shipments +4.0% Y/Y at 25.04mln, via CAICT.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) opened with very modest gains, with markets digesting the slew of trade-related updates on Thursday/overnight. In essence, US Officials generally pushed back against the severity of the latest ITC Court ruling, suggesting there are other ways to implement tariffs. As the session progressed, indices proceeded to trade with an upward bias and currently reside towards session highs. European sectors are mostly higher but with no clear theme aside from the day’s underperformer, Basic Resources. This is seemingly a factor of the aforementioned trade updates which seems to suggest that the US administration will implement tariffs irrespective of the ITC Court Ruling – as such, base metals are broadly in the red.

Top European News

• BoE Governor Bailey said the current challenge is that they don’t know what the outcome of the trade situation will be, while he added that they are taking a gradual and careful approach as the economy is hard to read. Bailey responded there is a lot of uncertainty around at the moment when asked about rate cuts and said labour market data is pretty much in line with what they thought, as well as noted that UK issues, not tariffs and trade, will be the main driver for UK rates.
• BoE’s Taylor said he is seeing more risk piling up on the downside scenario because of global developments, while he added the trade war is going to be negative for growth and he thought they needed to be on a lower monetary path, according to FT.
• ECB’s Panetta says there is reduced room to cut rates further, though the macro outlook is weak and trade tensions could weigh on this. Future policy decisions need to be assessed on a case-by-case basis, considering the data, inflation and growth outlook. Essential to retain a pragmatic and flexible approach. Disinflation has not taken too high a toll on the EZ. Tariff-exposed sectors are already showing signs of falling confidence.

FX

• DXY is on a firmer footing today as traders digest a slew of trade-related updates on Thursday/overnight; but in essence US Officials generally pushed back against the severity of the latest ITC Court ruling, suggesting there are other ways to implement tariffs. Elsewhere, a meeting between US President Trump and Fed Chair Powell seemed to discuss economic developments but Powell refrained from discussing his expectations on monetary policy. DXY currently trades at the upper end of a 99.12-61 range ahead of the much-anticipated US PCE.
• EUR is pressured and towards the bottom of the G10 performers list; pressure which seemingly stems from broader Dollar strength. There have been a number of key European data points today, but nothing that fundamentally changed the downward bias for the Single-Currency. For European-specific trade updates, Bessent suggested that the EU’s deal is in motion. Elsewhere, the FT reported that Germany is eyeing a 10% digital tax on global tech giants like Meta and Google. EUR/USD currently trades towards the lower end of a 1.1328-1.1389 range.
• JPY is currently the incrementally firmer vs the Dollar, largely thanks to the tepid risk tone and following a mostly firmer Tokyo inflation report overnight. To recap, headline Y/Y printed a little below expectations, but the core and super-core figures beat consensus. BoJ Governor Ueda spoke overnight, saying that “we are aware of firms’ aggressive price and wage setting behaviour continuing”, he also highlighted the uncertain nature of the economy. USD/JPY trades in a 143.45-144.21 range.
• GBP is modestly lower vs the broader Dollar strength but ultimately faring a little better vs peers. UK-specific updates today have been very light; focus on Thursday was on BoE’s Bailey who provided little by way of surprises – he reiterated a gradual monetary policy approach and highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the economy. Cable currently trading in a 1.3456-1.3510 range; further downside could see a test of Thursday’s low at 1.3415.
• Antipodeans are lower but with clear underperformance in the Aussie, with downside facilitated by broader losses in the metals complex. For AUD specifically, it is pressured after the region reported a contraction in Retail sales.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1848 vs exp. 7.1859 (Prev. 7.1907).

Fixed Income

• USTs are contained. Newsflow this morning has been virtually non-existent for USTs as we continue to digest the court-related trade updates and confirmation that Liberation Day measures will remain in place during the appeals process; timeline remains unknown. In a 110-19 to 110-25 band. A marginal new high for the week with USTs holding onto the gains that began mid-day on Thursday and then continued into the evening as the initial court-related pressure abated with the administration sticking to its plans. Focus now turns to US PCE (Apr).
• Bunds were initially contained, in-fitting with the above. Modest uptick to the 131.39 session high after cooler-than-expected Spanish Flash inflation, the series featured a marked cooling in the core figure. Thereafter, some choppiness following the German State CPI figures, which were a little mixed vs mainland implications; ultimately sending Bunds to a 131.02 trough.
• Gilts are directionally in-fitting with the above but holding at the unchanged mark given the lack of UK specifics. Handful of BoE speakers over the last 24 hours though nothing that has fundamentally shifted the narrative. Specifics for the UK have been very light, nothing of particular note on the docket so instead the benchmark will likely get dragged along by any move to German mainland CPI and then US PCE.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are in the green, having been supported by a bounce in the risk tone around the cash open. WTI Jul and Brent Aug have both gained around USD 0.30/bbl, to USD 61.27/bbl and 63.66/bbl respectively.
• Spot gold is underperforming within the precious metals complex, amid the weaker dollar, and subdued demand ahead of the weekend. The session so far has been absent of any fresh macro catalysts, and gold trades within narrow parameters of USD 3,287.54-3,322.64/oz, currently towards the session low.
• Base metals are broadly in negative territory, suffering from the stronger dollar and fading trade optimism.
• US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -2.795M vs. Exp. 0.118M (Prev. 1.328M)

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US plan for Gaza proposes a 60-day ceasefire and includes the release of 28 Israeli hostages, alive and dead, within the first week of the ceasefire, while remaining Israeli hostages are to be released after implementation of a permanent ceasefire and Israel is to release 125 Palestinian prisoners sentenced for life and 1,111 prisoners detained after October 7th within the first week of the agreement. The plan includes sending aid to Gaza as soon as Hamas signs off on the ceasefire agreement and the Israeli military operation will cease upon implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Israeli troops to redeploy after the release of hostages and ceasefire agreement to be guaranteed by US President Trump, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US told the UN Security Council if Russia decides to continue the war in Ukraine, the US will have to consider stepping back from negotiation efforts to end the conflict, while it added the deal on offer now is Russia’s best possible outcome and the Russian President Putin should take the deal. Furthermore, it said additional sanctions on Russia are still on the table.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Apr Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: Apr Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%
• 8:30 am: Apr PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0%
• 8:30 am: Apr PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.3%
• 8:30 am: Apr Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0%
• 8:30 am: Apr Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%
• 8:30 am: Apr P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 9:45 am: May MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45, prior 44.6
• 10:00 am: May F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51.5, prior 50.8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In less than a week we’ve had a 1-week forward 50% tariff imposed on the EU, the same tariff delayed by 5 weeks, the US Court of International Trade rule that a large swathe of the US Administration’s tariffs are illegal, the Court of Appeal yesterday granting a temporary stay that leaves the tariffs in force while it considers the case, as well as news that the Administration will turn to alternative powers if they lose their court appeal. It really is hard to keep up. Trading and analysing this market successfully requires a lot of luck. Unless of course I get it right and then its skill.

Risk assets initially surged yesterday after the surprise court ruling but they gave up those gains later in the day as markets digested several alternatives avenues they could pursue. At the extreme end, although things that seem extreme often materialise in 2025, DB’s George Saravelos discussed the prospect of using Section 899 of the „Big Beautiful Bill” that is working its way through the Senate. The risk here is that this provides the option to change tax treatment of foreign capital. So if the US wanted to they could pivot some of their attention from a trade to a capital war. Clearly no-one knows but a wounded animal is often a dangerous one. See George’s short blog here on it. Ultimately if they did pursue this route it would be an added disincentive for foreigners to hold as much US assets.

In all, markets have struggled for consistent direction over the last 24 hours but have generally given up the gains post the court ruling. So even though S&P 500 futures rose +1.78% in the European morning yesterday, the index gave up all of those gains at one point before ending the day with a modest +0.40% increase, supported by a +3.25% rise for Nvidia after its results the previous day. However, S&P and Nasdaq futures are -0.23% and -0.28% lower again overnight and Asian indices are losing ground, in part following comments by Treasury Secretary Bessent that trade talks with China are “a bit stalled”. The court ruling won’t help that either.

To give a full recap of the tariff court case, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the Trump administration didn’t have the authority to impose most of the announced tariffs that were implemented using emergency powers. So that would block tariffs including the 10% baseline, the 25% on Canadian and Mexican products, the extra 20% on China, and the paused reciprocal tariffs. There are other avenues the administration can use instead, such as the section 232 used for steel, aluminium and auto tariffs. The problem is these would take longer to implement and in the meantime it feels like the incentive for other countries to strike a deal with the US is low while the uncertainty takes over. There’s also Section 122 tariffs, which permit tariffs up to 15% for 150 days. The Wall Street Journal reported last night that Trump’s trade team was considering this as a stopgap option while it prepares Section 301 tariffs used to counter unfair trade practices. So even if the court ruling is upheld, it doesn’t look like the world is heading back to the pre-2025 tariff situation even if there is a pathway to a world with less tariffs after the ruling.

For now those alternative options are on the backburner, as last night the Court of Appeal allowed the tariffs to temporarily stay in place, giving a June 9 deadline for briefs on the administration’s request for a longer-term stay on the trade court’s tariff suspension. The exact timing of the appeal is unclear, and with further appeals to the Supreme Court appearing likely, the uncertainty may well linger beyond the current July 9 deadline on the reciprocal tariff pause. Trump broke his initial silence on the ruling in a lengthy post late last night, saying “Hopefully, the Supreme Court will reverse this horrible, Country threatening decision, QUICKLY and DECISIVELY”, adding that the decision “would completely destroy Presidential Power”.

Trade wasn’t the only game in town yesterday though with data moving markets as much as the trade headlines, and more so in the case of bonds. In particular, there was a notable bond rally after the weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, as that raised hopes that the Fed were still on track to cut rates this year. Initial claims rose to 240k in the week ending May 24 (vs. 230k expected), while continuing claims moved up to 1.919m (vs. 1.893m expected) for the week before that. Moreover, the updated Q1 GDP release saw the annualized pace of personal consumption growth revised to its lowest in seven quarters (+1.2% vs +1.7% initial), while pending home sales for April saw their biggest monthly fall since September 2022. So that immediately led investors to price in more rate cuts this year, with 50bps now priced in by the December meeting, up +5.2bps yesterday.

The bond rally was also supported by a solid 7-year Treasury auction that saw $44bn of notes issued -2.2bps below the pre-sale yield. By the close, Treasury yields were lower across the curve, with the 2yr yield down -5.1bps to 3.94%, whilst the 10yr yield fell -6.0bps to 4.42%. They were 10-12bps higher than this close earlier in the day as the court ruling seemed to lead to the belief that more of the deficit would go unfunded. The dollar index saw a similar round trip trading as much as +0.61% higher early on but closing -0.60% lower. How the narrative changed!

Yesterday also saw the first in-person meeting between Trump and Fed Chair Powell since the president’s inauguration. According to the White House, Trump told Powell he is making a mistake by not cutting rates. Meanwhile, in a short statement from the Fed they emphasised that the FOMC will make policy decisions “based solely on careful, objective, and non-political analysis”.

Over in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-4.7bps), OATs (-4.8bps) and BTPs (-4.6bps) all moved lower as well. That was supported by lower inflation expectations, with the 2yr US inflation swap falling -3.0bps on the day to 2.84%. In part, that was thanks to lower oil prices, with Brent crude down -1.16% to $64.15/bbl. But there was also a fresh boost from the latest US data revisions, as core PCE inflation for Q1 was revised down a tenth, to +3.4%. The growth picture also looked a bit less robust, as even though the GDP contraction was revised up a tenth to an annualised -0.2% rate, there was a half-point downward revision to real final sales to domestic private purchasers, to 2.5%. That’s often seen as a better measure of underlying demand, so the fact that came down suggests the underlying picture wasn’t quite as positive as thought going into Liberation Day.

For equities, the potential of tariff relief just about outweighed the more negative data, which ultimately saw the S&P 500 rise +0.40% with all but one of its eleven sector groups moving higher on the day. The Magnificent 7 (+0.61%) managed to reach a 3-month high, mostly thanks to the +3.25% gain for Nvidia. By contrast, in Europe the STOXX 600 (-0.19%) slipped back for a second day running, led by declines for the DAX (-0.44%) and FTSE MIB (-0.36%).

Overnight in Asia, stocks are selling off across the region where the Hang Seng (-1.47%) and the Nikkei 225 (-1.27%) are among the hardest-hit indices, with the KOSPI down -1.06% and the CSI 300 retreating by a milder -0.33%. In terms of local economic data releases, there was the Tokyo CPI for May in Japan overnight, which beat Bloomberg consensus on both the core measure (3.6% vs 3.5% expected) as well as core-core (3.3% vs 3.2%). April retail sales and industrial production for the economy also beat. The dollar is down -0.27% against the yen this morning and UST yields are up by +0.4bps on the 2yr and are flat on the 10yr. The Japanese 10yr yield is down by -1.5bps.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the May CPI releases from Germany and Italy, along with US PCE inflation for April, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for May, and Canada’s Q1 GDP. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly and Goolsbee, and the ECB’s Muller, Panetta and Vujcic.