Energy Transformation Fund… another national epic that will establish the Fund once the certificates run out.
It already seemed that the Energy Transformation Fund (FTE) topic had disappeared from public and political discussion. But suddenly, electrifying news circulated in the media—the Ministry of Climate and Environment (MoC) plans to prepare a draft law establishing the Fund this fall or next spring at the latest.
For most power engineers, the situation stopped being funny and became utterly tragic. State revenues from the sale of CO2 emission certificates, which, according to the assumptions of the “evil Union,” were supposed to be earmarked for the green transition, actually flowed into the Ministry of Finance and supported the state budget for years. These funds were spent on subsidies, bonuses, payments and programs that had nothing to do with real energy. The most energetic measure was the freezing of energy prices. The extent of rapid public amnesia is evidenced by the fact that only some remember the heated discussion about establishing the Energy Transformation Fund (FTE). This Fund was to accumulate funds, at least 40% of which was originally intended to be allocated to green energy and grid and storage development during the transition. Even under the previous government, the dates for referring bills to legislation were repeatedly postponed, ultimately unsuccessful. Nor does anyone remember the current coalition’s flagship promise to allocate 100% of the funds from the sale of certificates to the energy transition (after all, we complain all the time that there is no money for investment) in the great program of change that was to follow the government (well, except perhaps my students in lectures).
The idea is being reactivated, and everyone in the energy industry is looking forward to the details with hope. However, I immediately dampened the mood – the deputy minister, when asked for more information on when we will reach a target system in which the money will go 100% to the purpose for which it is paid, replied: “I think this path will take several years.” This is especially important for people who pay the cost of emission certificates in their energy bills and expect those funds to be invested in cheaper, clean, green energy. That is, we will spend the money first, and only then will we establish the Energy Transformation Fund (FTE) someday. After that, it will take us a few more years for the Fund to have 100% of the emission certificates. It is already possible to bet on which will come sooner – the establishment of the FTE or the end of the CO2 certificate system in the European Union (for today, the probability is 20/80). Betting on whether the establishment of the FTE will happen before significant government changes or changes in the Ministry seems pointless since everyone already knows how it will end.
“The mining pen is stronger than… the pickaxe,” one letter and already 1.5 billion in the account.
It has been known for years that “the pen is stronger than the sword” – this Anglo-Saxon proverb is widely used in books and movies. It also proves true in the Polish energy reality, especially when the mining unions write. Another letter appears whenever there is a threat to business, such as problems with paying more salaries and bonuses. It is usually signed by most if not all, active unions and addressed to the company authorities and, above all, to the Ministry of Climate and Environment, the Ministry of Industry and the Prime Minister himself. Lately, the letters are so frequent that we need to catch up with commenting on them, which shows how difficult the situation is. We can all see it – across the European Union, energy production from RES exceeded that from fossil fuels in the first half of the year, global coal prices are relatively low (the ARA has recently been at $120/ton due to geopolitical threats), and the profitability of the Polish mining industry is in a deplorable state (I recommend a substantive article on High Tension). It is difficult to add anything more.
One thing does not change – the power of the mining pen. There have been writings on the decline in coal mining and sales (admitting that Polish mines are uncompetitive on the world market) and coal standards (acknowledging that we burn hopeless quality coal in our home stoves). Each of these letters is always addressed to the relevant state bodies. The letters, of course, include a demand for an urgent meeting and a thorough discussion, but everyone knows that it’s the vacation and there is no one to discuss it. However, after all, this is not the point. Nor is it about a constructive approach to the social contract on the closure of the mining segment (I invite you always to analyze the appendix – Table 2 showing investments for 16 billion in clean coal technologies that will never be built). Recipients of the writings know very well what to do. It is precisely out of the blue and why, on August 1, the Minister of Finance issued treasury bonds worth PLN 1.5 billion earmarked for increasing PGG’s share capital. We also know what will happen next. In August, there will surely be additional bonuses for miners; over the vacations, the discussions will fade, the disaster of the mining Titanic will continue, and already around October or November, there will be more mining letters urging the relevant ministries to help the mining industry. Of course, it will be about more bonds, grants, loans and transfers for miners’ salaries and “Barbórka’s” bonuses. A program is being implemented to inject 7 billion into the mining industry in 2024 in the complete absence of systemic changes (wage costs are rising and productivity is declining), which, less ridiculously, will take about 500 zlotys out of the pocket of every Polish citizen this year. I have suggested before, in satirical comments, to pay part of these subsidies in coal (which would increase supply) or to distribute coal to other social groups, which turns out not to be the most absurd economic idea concerning mining. It seems that everything is moving (also satirically predicted) towards a model in which the mining industry will no longer produce coal (or only mine it on the heap since no one will buy it) but will instead receive total salaries while maintaining and perhaps even slightly increasing employment. In this way, the grand plan of the social contract with a guaranteed income will be realized in the mining sector, and if the payments are late, there will be letters and letters. Because… you don’t even have to swing a pickaxe.
