To może być samotna walka dla Ukrainy

IWONA REICHARDT: You have just returned from the United States, where you were observing the final stages of the presidential campaign. Then you came back to Europe, specifically to Ukraine where you spent election night erstwhile the results came in. Were you amazed by the news that Donald Trump won?

TAMAR JACOBY: I was – it was a punch in the gut. But I shouldn’t have been surprised. Now that I look at the results, I think we all should have seen it coming. We told ourselves it was 50-50, but it wasn’t 50-50. Trump won by a crucial margin. I don’t blame the polling – I don’t think that’s the main problem. I think that people just didn’t want to see a Trump triumph coming. I surely didn’t want to see it. Now we request to accept that Americans have embraced Donald Trump.

It’s hard to realize why exactly. Is it that voters don’t believe he’ll do all the crazy things he says he will do? Or is it that they truly just don’t like the direction that Democrats were taking the country? Why this wholehearted embrace? I’m inactive struggling to realize it. But clearly Americans have embraced Trump, and we are going to gotta accept the choice and live with it for 4 years.

Speaking of the crazy stuff you mentioned, 1 of Trump’s promises is to end the war in Ukraine in a day, something which seems inconceivable…

Yes, Ukrainian social media had a field day with that in the first days after the election: “The clock is ticking. Don, where is the peace?” But jokes aside, I don’t think he will be able to end the war in a day. I think he will find it harder to end than he thinks.

The large question will be what kind of deal does he propose? I’m very afraid about any of the deals that his advisors have suggested. The second question is how will Putin react? The consequence from Russia in the last 2 or 3 days has not been peculiarly forthcoming. The 3rd question will be how seriously will Trump stick with his proposal? If you remember his negotiations with North Korea in the first term, he gave up after just a fewer days of talks.

So yes, there are many questions about his promise to end the war in 24 hours. Also, erstwhile he says he’s going to walk distant from Ukraine – in fact he hasn’t said that exactly, but people have read his comments to mean that. We don’t know what he intends. Does he mean no fresh weapons from the US, or an end to all support? Or does he mean that the US will proceed to supply intelligence and let the Europeans supply military aid, including by purchasing US weapons?

Bottom line: there are many versions of what could happen now, and I think people should focus on making arguments that might persuade Trump to do the right thing alternatively than immediately assuming he’ll do the worst.

Is this how you interpret the congratulatory tweet posted by president Zelenskyy, shortly after it was announced that Trump had won?

Yes, and besides Zelenskyy’s fresh emphasis on “peace through strength.” That’s a mention to Ronald Reagan and a phrase frequently quoted by John McCain. Trump prides himself on being a strong leader, so let’s flatter him a small and remind him how Reagan dealt with Russia. You don’t accomplish peace by giving in. You accomplish peace by being strong and insisting on your demands. Giving in to a bully never works, and it won’t work with Putin. The Ukrainians are hoping this is an argument that will appeal to Trump.

I heard the same kind of reasoning from an American friend in Trump’s ellipse who talked about reminding him that he doesn’t want another Afghanistan on his watch. He doesn’t want to be another US president walking distant from an ally, leaving them to defeat in a origin we erstwhile championed. Ultimately, that’s a defeat for America, and it’s not, as they would say in the Trump world, a good look. possibly that’s the most promising way to appeal to Trump in coming months. As we know, he hates losers.

What do you think success would mean for Trump erstwhile it comes to ending the war in Ukraine?

We don’t know yet. Trump is simply a very reactive, emotional person. So, a lot depends on how it plays out. He won’t respond well if he feels that Putin is snubbing him – that could work to Ukraine’s advantage. And he won’t like it if it looks like America has someway failed and betrayed its ally. So we just gotta see. There are many unknowns and many things that request to play out. What’s crucial now is to effort to aid Trump see Ukraine in a frame that could be positive.

This gets us to the Trump-Putin relationship. Who is Putin for Trump? A friend or a foe?

Unclear. But he is inactive definitely a foe for Ukraine and the remainder of the West. And nothing suggests a change of attitude among average Russians. Ukrainian social media monitors Russian social media very closely, and there’s been quite a few talk in fresh days about how America is inactive Russia’s enemy and America will always be Russia’s enemy. 1 Ukrainian header quoted a Russian saying, “Same jerk, different face” – meaning Trump is no different from Biden. And quite a few that attitude is fanned by Putin and his allies.

The large question about the negotiations is what will Trump put on the table? If Putin walks away, I can imagine there would be consequences – I could see Trump hammering him hard. The question is, why would he walk away? If Trump proposes a freezing of the front line and a Ukrainian promise not to join NATO, why would Putin walk away? That’s my biggest concern. But again, we just don’t know.

Also, let’s not forget about the 4th large player – Europe. You have Ukraine, you have the US, you have Russia, but you besides have Europe. And Europe has to get its act together and step up. We could see a script where Trump backs distant but says “Europe, it’s your responsibility”. Europe then has to find the money and the weapons, and step in. Europeans have been talking about these responsibilities since the war began, but they haven’t truly done much to increase their military capacity. Poland is spending more, but Germany is inactive spending almost nothing, and the German government has just collapsed. That is why I’m as afraid about what’s going on in Europe as I am about what’s happening in the US.

Do you think Europe, and especially countries specified as Poland or the Baltic states, should worry right now? Does Trump’s triumph mean we are more at hazard of war coming to our door?

The bottom line is that Europe has to step up. No substance who is president of the United States. Even if Kamala Harris had won, Europe would request to get going. It is not adequate to talk the talk – “We gotta spend more”. Europeans gotta allocate the money and cooperate with each another to make all dollar go as far it can. And they gotta do it efficiently. There has been quite a few talk, but the train has not left the station. I realize – things take time in Brussels, and it’s complicated. But come on, hurry up. People are dying in east Ukraine. And this war will come to Europe’s doorstep. The threats are already on your doorstep. And in this regard, I think Trump’s election might actually aid – might push the Europeans to act in a way that the situation on the front line hasn’t pushed them.

Speaking about the front line, and the overall situation in Ukraine, all the prognoses are not optimistic…

It’s not good. The Russians are relying more and more heavy on glide bombs, a brutal tactic. They destruct the place they’re trying to take, and then they send in men. And nobody has figured out how to counter these attacks. These are old-fashioned aerial bombs with wings, and they’re huge. erstwhile they hit, they can destruct full buildings. And that’s what the Russians have done – destroyed city after city.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ammunition is dwindling, and the men are tired. As I realize things, this summer’s mobilization drive has mostly fizzled out, and desertions are up. The Ukrainian public is inactive hanging in there. Opinion polls don’t show much change in attitudes toward the war over the last six months. Life is amazingly average in Kyiv. For me, it’s large to be back. But people are tired, and I think they are waiting to see how Trump’s election will change the dynamic.

Ukrainians are so tired of fighting with 1 hand tied behind their back, getting any American and European weaponry but not adequate and not permitted to usage it as they think it should be used. I lot of people are eager for something bolder – and many think that may be Trump. Many people are worried about him, but any people are hopeful. possibly Trump will break something – will someway break the logjam.

Do you feel the sense of abandonment in Ukraine? Do Ukrainians feel abandoned by the West, by Poland, by the US?

Those countries aren’t all the same. I think most Poles realize what is going on in Ukraine – realize the existential Russian threat. Most Europeans get it. But most Americans do not get it. They don’t realize the stakes or the magnitude of the threat, unfortunately. For most Americans, this war is very far away. And their view of the stakes is more transactional than existential. But even in Europe, let’s be honest, there is more talk than action. Abandonment is simply a large word, but possibly it’s not far from the truth. It’s becoming a lonely fight for Ukraine.

What is America going to do now, during this period erstwhile Joe Biden is simply a lame duck and Donald Trump is president-elect?

I do not think there will be another supplemental backing package from Congress. I just don’t see it. Both the home and the legislature are now Republican and under Trump’s sway. Still, a fewer things could happen between now and January. We haven’t spent all the money from the last supplemental, and we should rush to do that. Senator Lindsey Graham has an interesting idea: giving Ukraine the same position as Israel, beginning the way to much wider access to US weapons. It’s not rather NATO membership, but it’s a lot better than what Ukraine has now. We should besides be looking at the rules that govern how American defence contractors can cooperate with contractors in another countries.

Many of these are tiny things, but the point is it’s way besides shortly to give up. There are things that can be done in the US, things that can be done in Europe. possibly most crucial is what Zelenskyy and others are doing – reasoning about what arguments will be most compelling to the Trump team. All of these steps can make a difference, and we gotta go on. The war is not over. Ukrainians are inactive fighting, and Russia looks as menacing as ever, for Ukraine and the remainder of Europe.

Tamar Jacoby is the Kyiv-based manager of the Progressive Policy Institute’s fresh Ukraine Project. A erstwhile writer and author, she was a elder author and justice editor at Newsweek and, before that, the deputy editor of the New York Times op-ed page. She is the author of “Someone Else’s House: America’s Unfinished conflict for Integration” and “Displaced: The Ukrainian exile Experience.”

Iwona Reichardt is the deputy editor in chief of New east Europe.

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