Fearmongering Pundits Disappointed AGAIN As Consumer Prices Refuse To Surge On Trump Tariffs

In what is reportedly the first real test of the tariff terror pass-through impact on the average American, today’s CPI print was expected to rise modestly following survey after survey suggesting the fecal matter is about is about to strike the rotating object… just like every mainstream media economist warned.

Higher Prices

• ISM Manufacturing prices expanded to 69.8, the highest since June 2022.

• ISM Services ticked up to 65.1 in April, the highest since January 2023.

• S&P Global US Manufacturing firms increased their output prices by the greatest degree since early 2023.

• S&P Global US Services prices advanced.

• Richmond Fed manufacturing showed prices received rose to 2.65 from 2.34 in March.

• New York Fed manufacturing prices received edged up to 28.7 from 22.4 in March.

• Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report showed prices received gained to 30.7 compared to 29.8 in March.

• Kansas City Fed manufacturing prices received surged to 29, up from 15 in March.

• Kansas City Fed non-manufacturing showed selling prices rose in April.

• Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook report showed prices received for finished goods advanced to 14.9, up from 6.3 in March.

• Dallas Fed services selling prices rose to 8.4 from 5.2 in the prior month.

• Chicago PMI showed prices expanded at a faster pace in April.

So what did we get?

A nothingburger… again… as headline and core CPI both printed below expectations.

Headline CPI rose just 0.1% MoM in May (+0.2% MoM exp), inching higher to +2.4% YoY (from +2.3% YoY in April)…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy deflation dominated the headline CPI…

Source: Bloomberg

• CPI increased 0.1% MoM after rising 0.2 percent in April; Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April.

  • The index for shelter rose 0.3% in May and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.3% as both of its major components, the index for food at home and the index for food away from home also rose 0.3% in May.

  • In contrast, the energy index declined 1.0% in May as the gasoline index fell over the month.

  • Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, personal care, and education.

  • The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in May.

• CPI rose 2.4% for the 12 months ending May, after rising 2.3% in April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8% over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.5% for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 2.9% over the last year.

Core CPI was even more disappointing for the average PhD pundit as it rose 0.1% MoM (well below the +0.3% MoM expected), flat with April’s +2.8% YoY – the lowest since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods prices deflated…

Source: Bloomberg

Some more details on core CPI which rose 0.1% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April.

• The shelter index increased 0.3% over the month.

  • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% in May and the index for rent increased 0.2 percent.

  • The lodging away from home index fell 0.1% in May.

• The medical care index increased 0.3% over the month, following a 0.5% increase in April.

  • The index for hospital services increased 0.4% in May and the index for prescription drugs rose 0.6%.

  • The physicians’ services index fell 0.3% over the month.

• The motor vehicle insurance index rose 0.7% in May, after rising 0.6% in April.

• The index for household furnishings and operations increased 0.3% over the month.

• The personal care index increased 0.5% in May, and the education index rose 0.3%.

• In contrast, the index for airline fares fell 2.7% in May, after declining 2.8% in April.

• The used cars and trucks index fell 0.5% over the month, and the new vehicles index (-0.3%) and apparel index (-0.4%) also declined.

Shelter inflation keeps falling…

• May Rent inflation 3.81% YoY, down from 3.98% in April, lowest since Jan 2022.

• May Shelter inflation 3.86% YoY, down from 3.99% in April, lowest since Nov 2021

On a YoY basis, Services cost price increases continue to slow while Goods prices accelerate very (very) modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

So, we guess we will just have to wait for NEXT MONTH to see the hyperinflationary hellscape that so many TV pundits told us would occur after Trump’s terror tariffs were imposed.

Every month https://t.co/pbD9Cc3Wml

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2025

Cue the excuse factory… just wait until next month…