The South Caucasus is simply a strategical region for the EU, and Armenia has become a key partner in this tough neighbourhood. It is the only country in the region that is simultaneously exercising democratic reforms and facing external threats, hybrid force and structural economical dependence. Armenia and the European Union have late become partners of strategical nature, with shared interests regarding democracy, safety diversification and economical development. This shift emerged amid changing geopolitical dynamics and safety alliances. In particular, this happened against the background of Yerevan’s increasing disappointment with Russia and the Collective safety Treaty Organization (CSTO). In response, the EU has gradually deepened its involvement. This has been done specifically by deploying a civilian reflection mission (EUMA) after Russia did not fulfill its safety obligations, and the CSTO did not respond to Azerbaijan’s military operations.
In 2024, negotiations on the fresh EU-Armenia Partnership Agenda launched, replacing the partnership priorities adopted within the framework of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2018. Although Armenia has not officially submitted an application for EU membership, 2 key events have paved the way for membership aspirations. The first was the speech made by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the European Parliament in 2023, erstwhile he announced that Armenia is ready to decision closer to the European Union as much as Brussels considers it possible. The second active the bill concerning the launch of the process for Armenia’s accession to the European Union, which was submitted to the National Assembly in January and approved the following month. The EU’s initiation of a Visa Liberalization dialog is besides a signal that relations are moving towards a more strategical partnership. The EU-Armenia dialog on visa liberalization was officially launched on September 9th 2024. Margaritis Schinas, erstwhile vice president of the European Commission, arrived in Yerevan for this purpose. Already by November 5th an EU delegation was in Yerevan to work out the programme of negotiations for visa liberalization with the Armenian side. Currently, discussions on the Visa Liberalization dialog Action Plan are in an active phase, which will specify the essential reforms, including security, border management, biometric documentation, and individual data protection.
In this context, the visit of the EU advanced typical for abroad Affairs and safety Policy Kaja Kallas to Armenia on June 30th was besides important. During her visit, she noted that the EU and Armenia have never been as close as they are now, and that the European Union is ready to further deepen the partnership in all directions. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen besides made a akin assessment on July 14th after Nikol Pashinyan’s working visit to Brussels. She wrote on her microblog that European Union-Armenia ties are increasing closer than ever.
This year, the Council of the European Union extended the mandate of the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) for a further 2 years. Brussels has besides expressed its willingness to direct funds from the European Peace Fund to Armenia’s defence sector. In addition, Brussels has allocated 33 million euros of humanitarian aid to Yerevan to support those displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Nevertheless, the process of EU-Armenia rapprochement is not going all smoothly, as there are conflicts of geopolitical interests and challenges in this region. Traditionally, Yerevan has been more dependent on Russia than the another 2 countries in the region: Georgia and Azerbaijan. Russia has a military base in Armenia, which is economically dependent on Moscow. Membership in the Eurasian economical Union (EAEU) besides hinders rapprochement with the European Union. It should be noted that Yerevan is not keen on leaving Moscow behind per se, but on diversifying its economical and safety policies. For example, India has become Armenia’s biggest partner in military-technical matters. Yerevan signed arms supply contracts worth about 1 billion US dollars with fresh Delhi over just 1 year. Paris has besides taken a serious step to decision closer to Yerevan. In October 2023, Armenia and France signed agreements on cooperation in the military-technical sphere. Overall, it is hard to say that Armenia is turning distant from Russia towards the European Union, as it is not in Yerevan’s interest to become another battlefield between Russia and the West. The fact that Armenia is trying to keep a balance between the West and Russia seems to be besides evidenced by the steps of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. In October 2023, he missed the CIS summit and did not participate in the CSTO session in November. However, in late December he travelled to St Petersburg, where he met with Putin at a gathering of the Eurasian economical Council.
According to the Institute of global Finance (IIF), Armenia consciously or not helps Russia to bypass European sanctions. According to the Institute’s figures, the supply of goods from European Union countries to Armenia has increased 4 to 5 times since March 2022, and Armenia’s trade with Russia has more than tripled.
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Opposition, government and public thoughts on European integration
Armenia-EU relations have been showing an unprecedented strength in fresh times. Nevertheless, there has been a preponderance of safety concerns among expert and political circles, especially on the part of the home opposition. This condition is conditioned by the fact that the erstwhile authorities of Armenia, which presently constitute the main opposition, have a predominantly pro-Russian orientation. They believe that the West has no vital interests in the Caucasus and their support for Armenia may not be consistent. The most extremist wing of the opposition believes that Turkey is serving the interests of the European Union and the collective West in this region. As a result, it is unrealistic for Armenia to become a associate of the EU in the close future, as Ankara is not in the club either. The Armenian opposition is besides sceptical about the dialog on visa liberalization. They believe that, given advanced European standards in many areas, specifically national and pan-European policies related to migration, the current Armenian regime, with its functional and organization incapacity, will not be able to implement the provisions of the programme in a timely manner. At the same time, pro-western forces in the Armenian political arena see the country’s future as guaranteed exclusively within the European family. The actual process of visa liberalization, according to government figures, may take respective years, and the challenges may be related not to political, but to method issues. They believe that the most crucial phase in the visa liberalization dialog process to be the launch of the dialog per se, and that has already taken place.
How has Armenian society reacted to the policy of rapprochement with the European Union and the visa liberalization process?
According to the results of the 2024 yearly survey in Armenia conducted by the “EU NEIGHBOURS east” programme, 62 per cent of the country’s citizens trust the European Union. This index is the highest among all another global institutions and is 19 per cent higher than the index 2 years ago. Furthermore, almost 4 out of 5 respondents (78 per cent) measure EU-Armenia relations positively. fresh polls besides showcase that the majority of the population, especially in the capital, is in favour of liberalizing the visa government between Armenia and the EU and considers this process a affirmative and essential improvement for the country. At the same time, there is common concern with many youngsters that this process may lead to the emigration of the young labour force. In order to prevent this, they believe that the improvement of surviving conditions in the country should be the key precedence on the authorities’ agenda.
Conclusion
Looking at the subject of Armenia’s rapprochement with the European Union, for now it is possible to talk only about limited possibilities. The main challenge in the relations between Yerevan and Brussels is yet the EU’s ties with Baku. This is especially clear regarding the bloc’s gas contract with Azerbaijan. In order to effectively guarantee the safety of Armenia, the West must respond more harshly to Baku’s threats and actions against the country.
One of the most essential questions is whether Armenia is ready and capable to implement all the reforms outlined by the EU, and with what road map will this process decision forward? In the coming years, Armenia is improbable to be ready to submit an application for membership in the European Union, not wanting to provoke the Kremlin. However, this option cannot be ruled out in the future.
Anna Vardanyan is an independent journalist, political analyst and investigator based in Armenia.
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